Demographic Transition Theory

• It was proposed by W.S. Thompson & Frank W. Notestein.
• It is a non-spatial temporal model based on the socio-economic transformation & the changing demographic scenario in a country.
• It co-relates growth of population with the changing technology, socio-economic upliftment & consumerism.
• It is deterministic & predictive model, which presents a sequential change in country's demography with economic progression.

Basic Premises 

1. The natural growth rate increases because of the fall in death rate. Death rate suddenly decreases while birth rate has gradual decline.
2. Economic progress in the society comes with growth of science, demography, control over social evil, malnutrition, famine, etc.
3. High consumerism & higher income is inversely co-related with fertility rate.

The Stages of Demographic Transition

     Stage I(High Stationary Phase)

• Birth rate more than 35 pre 1000 & death rate more than 35 per 1000. Thus population remains stationary. 
• It is reflective of primitive society.
• Higher death rate is due to malnutrition, famine, etc.

     Satge II(Early Expanding Phase)

• Birth rate remains above 35 pre 1000 but the death rate decreases to 20 per 1000. the population growth rate increases.
• The end of this stage is marked by population explosion where the natural growth rate is maximum.
• This stage is similar to industrial revolution stage with the control over resources, development of medical sciences, etc.

     Stage III(Late Expanding Phase)

• The Birth rate also declines up to 20 per 1000 but the death rate further declines to 10. Thus the population expansion continues however at a declining rate.
• Scientific revolution & increased per capita income, better control over health hazards, infant mortality, mother mortality, etc.

     Stage IV(Low Stationary Phase)

• Both birth rate & death rate are less then 10. Thus population growth stagnates & consumerism grows in the society.
• Technological developmental, nuclearisation of family, democratic ideals, liberty, individual freedom in the society.

     Stage V(Declining Phase)

• After 1970s in the highly developed economy the firtility has greatly declined and the countries are witnesssing negative population growth rate. eg. Germany, Japan, Russia.

Criticism of Demographic Transition Theory

1. Too deterministic & predictive.
2. Some of the countries have consumerism of stage IV but birth rate of stage II. eg. West Asian countries.
3. Population is not necessarily govern by the economic processes but also by cultural factors.
4. Some of the Countries has economic activities of stage I & population of stage IV. eg. Australia, New-Zealand, Chile & Argentina.
5. The model is not applicable to Africa & Asia and particularly India because India is in demographic trap between stage II & III.
6. The theory has not considered migration as a mechanism of population growth rate.
7. The model does not consider demographic momentum as a factor of population increase.

Demographic Momentum means the no. of people in fertility age. Even though the fertility rate declines,the demographic momentum can further increase population. eg. India has 40% of its population below 14 years & 3/4th of its population in reproductive age.(i.e. the no. of females between 14 to 45 creates demographic momentum)