Migration

• Migration refers to the movement by people or communities from one place to another with the intention of settling in the new location.

Laws of migration by E. G. Ravenstein(in 1890s)

1. Most migrants move only short distance.
2. Economic factors are the main cause of migration.
3. Females are more migratory than males.
4. There is a process of absorption, whereby people immediately surrounding a rapidly growing town moves into it and the gaps they leave are filled by migrants from more distance area, and so on until the attractive forces[pull factors] are spent. There is a process of dispersion, which is the inverse of absorption.
5. Each migratory flow produces a compensatory counter flow.
6. Long distance migration go to one of the great centre of commerce & industry.
7. Natives of the towns are less migratory than those of rural area.

Push-Pull theory on Migration

• Push factors initiate migration & refers to the adverse condition which disperse population, such factors originate at the source region. They are:
• • Economic Factors
  • Demographic factors
  • Social factors
  • Environmental factors
  • Cultural factors
  • Political factors
  • Dynamic factors
• Pull factors refers to the better conditions which attract population, such factors exists in the destination.

Lee's Model

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Mobility Transition Model by Zelinsky

• This model is the temporal analysis of migration behaviour. 
• It suggested that the various stages of the economic growth influences the nature and magnitude of migration.

     Stage I(Pre-Transition Society)

• • Agricultural Society
  • Low productivity, Surplus is absent
  • Religious & stagnant society
  • Pre-Newtonian society
  • Migration is only limited to short distance & socio cultural displacement(Rural to Rural).

     Stage II(Early Transition Society)

• • Industrial revolution & economic growth force huge rural migration to urban area because industries demand labour & the wage rates are higher than the rural area.
  • Such migrations are always economic migrations(Rural to Urban).

     Stage III(Late Transition Society)

• • The growth of urban centre, industrial & commercial towns and service sectors results in continued human displacement from rural to urban & from small urban centre to large urban centre to larger urban centre(Urban to Urban).

     Stage IV(Advance Society)

• • When economic development trickles down the lower runs of the society & the rural areas.
  • Then, migrations slows down and there is an inverse migration from urban centres to rural areas for recreational purposes.

     Stage V(Futuristic Society)

• • High economic development, consumption, consumerism, high per capita income & wage rates characterise this stage.
  • Nearly all migration will be inter-urban.

Other Models

• According to Zipf's Inverse Distance Law, the volume of migration is inversely proportional to the distant travelled by migrants. This is also called the Distance Decay Law.
• A no. of studies has not only examined the relationship between volume of migration & the distance but has also considered the influence of opportunities.
• In 1940, Stouffer proposed his theory of Intervening Opportunities, which says migration is directly proportional to the no. of opportunities at the distance and inversely proportional to the the no. of intervening opportunities.

Types of Migration

1. International Migrations
   • On spatial basis
   1. 1. Inter-continental
      2. Trans-Oceanic
   • On temporal basis
   • 1. Historical Migration(before 1680)
        • The migration of Magadh, which was military expansion of the empire into central asia, west asia, south-east asia.
        • Migration of Chola's in Sri Lanka, Malaysia, etc.
     2. Slave Migration(1680-1833)
        • In Virginia cargo, the African slaves were taken to Carrabian & US to work in railways, mining, etc.
        • Such migration had 50% mortality.
        • Indian migration during this period were limited from Chennai, Kochi, Goa, Calicut, etc.
     3. Indentured Labour Migration(1833-1905)
        • Indentured labour law replaced the Slaves Act.
        • Slaves law was abolished in 1833 and Indentured Labour law enacted, but it was hardly any different from the slave act because it created the bonded labours.
        • Most of the migrants were from India were from Bhojpur & Haryana because people from bhojpur had expertise in sugarcane cultivation.
     4. Recent Migration(1905- present)
        • Brain drain
        • Selected migration of professional.
        • the main cause of migration is economic factors
2. National Migration
   • Inter-State migration
   • • Assam - from Bangladesh, Santhal, Gorkhas, etc.
     • West Bengal - from Bihar, Odisha, North-East, etc.
     • Maharashtra - from the whole county, mainly to Mumbai
     • Tamil Nadu - from Kerala, AP, etc
     • Punjab - from Bihar, UP, MP, etc.
   • Regional Migration
   • 1. Rural to rural
        • 2/3rd of migrations are rural to rural. 
        • It is because of marriages, agricultural labourers, social tension, construction workers, etc.
        • Rural to rural migration of female migrants are primarily due to prevalence of patriarchal residence after migration.
     2. Rural to Urban
        • Around 17% of migration.
        • For higher wage rate, higher standard of living, health services, educational services, etc.
     3. Urban to Urban
        • Around 10% of migration.
        • From small centre to large urban centre for better standard of living.
     4. Urban to rural
        • Also called "Push-back migration" or "Inverse migration".
        • Around 6% of migration
        1. Mainly retired people for nostalgia & recreational purposes.

Optimum Poulation

• Optimum population refers to the size of a population that produces the best results according to chosen end targets. These end targets could be largest per capita income, log term sustainability, efficient operation of democracy, preservation of personal freedom and preservation of biodiversity.
• According to W. C. Robinson, as the beauty of female has various perspective, the concept of optimum population has perspective difference among scholars. 
• According to J. Stamp, optimum population is one where carrying capacity of the land is equal to the demand of population.
• The optimum population is the one which leads to the highest quality of life where quality of life means adequate amount of food, energy, air of high quality. Thus this concept is fundamentally economic in nature. 
• It is also defined as the condition where potentiality of human creativity can be realised. In other words, Optimum population is the size which permits the highest per capita output & the one where the marginal productivity still exceeds the average productivity, and where the rate of growth to the total production is highest. 
• In simple terms, it is condition where neither resources are dormant nor over burden nor over exploited. A population which can be sustained without jeopardising the future.

Over-Population

• It is when the population size can't be served by the available resources. It is a deviation from the equilibrium stage or optimum population.
• There are two types of over population:
• 1. Absolute
     • Where living standards remains low even after attainment of absolute development of resources.
     • Eg. Bangladesh
  2. Relative
     • where the present level of production is inadiquate but greater production is feasible.
     • eg. India
• Over population means low quality of life, malnutrition, food crisis, lack of social security, etc.

Under-population

• Under population is usually defined as a state in which a country's population has declined too much to support the current economic system.
• Thus the term has nothing to do with the biological aspect of carrying capacity, but is an economic term to imply that the transfer payment schemes of some developed countries might fail once the population decline to a certain point.

Problems in Under-Population

1. Imbalance between town & country(village) is a major problem
2. Shortage of skilled labour

Population Problems

• "Population is not a problem by itself but no problem can't be solved without controlling it" - J. L. Nehru
• "Poverty breads population" - Indra Gandhi; "Development is the best contraceptive" - Karan Singh
• Population is burdensome if it is unskilled but if educated, trained & skillful, it becomes best of resources.
• Population is a problem if they are not employed in any economic sector or unproductive population is a problem.
• According to Ackerman, population problem must be analysed with respect to 3 variables.
• 1. Natural Resources
  2. Technology
  3. Population Size
• He divided 5 types of population resources ratio:

• 	Resources	Population	Technology
  US type	high	optimum	high
  Europe type	Low	high	high
  Brazilian type	high	low	low
  Egyptian type	low	high	low
  Arctic type	low	low	low

Population Problem of Developed Countries

1. High dependency ratio
2. Aging population
3. Low work force
4. Rural depopulation
5. Isolation
6. Nuclearisation of family
7. Low or negative population growth rate
8. The no. of old age females surpasses the male

Population problem for developing countries

1. Rapid growth of population
2. unemployment & underemployment
3. Poor standard of living & malnutrition
4. mismanagement of agriculture resources
5. Slow growth of Industrial sector
6. Orthodoxy

Population Growth & Population Distribution

• Population growth is a temporal concept while Population Distribution is a spatial concept.
• Population growth refers to the population change by birth rate, death rate & migration.It is measured by annual exponantial growth rate, decadal growth rate, etc.
• Population distribution means the concentration of population cluster over space. Population distribution is measured by population density.

Population Growth in the World

     Stage I(Agricultural revolution phase) - 10000 BC to 1779

• Population growth was very slow because birth rate & death rate both were high.
• Malnutrition, famine, wars, etc.
• The total population is estimated by Durrand was 5 million during 8000 BC which became 500 million in 1560 & by 1779 it was 750 million.

     Stage II(Industrial revolution phase) - 1779 to 1930

• In 1850, population became 1 billion. Thus in 200 years the population doubled itself due to control over resources & development in medical  science, control over famine, malnutrition, etc.

     Stage III(Scientific Revolution phase) - 1930 to 1975

• The total population became 2 billion in 1930 and 4 billion in 1975. Thus it took 45 years to double the population.
• The explosive increase was witnessed in the 3rd world countries. After Independence, death rate was controlled by imported medicine & the green revolution mitigated the food crisis.
• In 1950, population was 2.5 billion. After 1950, the 1.5 billion population was added by the counties like India, China, west asia,South east Asia, etc.

     Stage IV(Technological Phase) - 1975 to Present

• Total population raised to 6 billion in 2001 & presently it is more than 7 billion. By 2025, it is projected to be 8 billion.
• Population explosion has continued in the developing countries.

Population Distribution of the World

1. High Density Region(>200)
   1. Primary Concentration(>750): Bangladesh, Singapore, etc.
   2. Secondary Concentration(>500): South east china, India, etc.
   3. Tertiary concentration(>200): Java, Malaysia, India, etc.
2. Medium Density Region(50-200)
3. Low Density Region(10-50)
4. Very Low density Region(<10)

Population Distribution on the basis of habitat

• The world can be divided into Ecumene which means human habitat. It is divided into:
• 1. Intensive ecumene: like metropolitan city, delta, flood basin, etc.
  2. Extensive ecumene: mainly rural area, sub-humid region, forest area, etc.
  3. Exploitation ecumene: Cumbering area, forestry area, mining area, etc.
  4. Sporadic ecumene: Semi-arid tracks, tribal region, climatically hazardous region, etc.
  5. Non-ecumene: Land which is unfit for human habitation. eg. desert.

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Population growth in India

     Stage I(High Stationary Phase) - 1881 to 1921

• In 1901, the population growth rate was 0.1 average annual exponential while decadal growth rate was 5.1 which became 5.7 in 1911. But in 1921 it was recorded -0.3 which means the total  population reduced to 251 million from 252 million because of epidemics famine & world war.
• 1921 is considered the great demographic divide because since then the population of India has been exponentially rising.

     Stage II(Early Expanding Phase) - 1921 to 1951

• In 1951, population became 36 crore despite the partition of India.
• The reason for population growth was control over famine & better nutrition.

     Stage III(Explosive Growth Phase) - 1951 to 1981

• In 1951, India wittnessed the highest population growth rate 24.8 & in 1971 24.7. 
• UP had double explosion & it experienced highest decadal growth rate during 1971-81. It was more due to coercive population policy of forced sterilization.

     Stage IV(Late Expanding Phase) - 1981 to Present

• The total population is on rise because of the demographic momentum & the higher replacement level.
• In 1991, decadal growth rate was 23.8. In 2001 = 21.3 and in 2011 = 17.64.
• The reason for decline is increase in education & awareness of family planning.
• The southern states have reached the replacement level. The higher growth rate is recorded in the gangatic plains.

Population Distribution in India

1. Very High population concentration(>750)
2. High Population concentration(500-750)
3. Medium population concentration(250-500)
4. Low population concentration(100-250)
5. Very Low population concentration(<100)

Demographic Transition Theory

• It was proposed by W.S. Thompson & Frank W. Notestein.
• It is a non-spatial temporal model based on the socio-economic transformation & the changing demographic scenario in a country.
• It co-relates growth of population with the changing technology, socio-economic upliftment & consumerism.
• It is deterministic & predictive model, which presents a sequential change in country's demography with economic progression.

Basic Premises 

1. The natural growth rate increases because of the fall in death rate. Death rate suddenly decreases while birth rate has gradual decline.
2. Economic progress in the society comes with growth of science, demography, control over social evil, malnutrition, famine, etc.
3. High consumerism & higher income is inversely co-related with fertility rate.

The Stages of Demographic Transition

     Stage I(High Stationary Phase)

• Birth rate more than 35 pre 1000 & death rate more than 35 per 1000. Thus population remains stationary. 
• It is reflective of primitive society.
• Higher death rate is due to malnutrition, famine, etc.

     Satge II(Early Expanding Phase)

• Birth rate remains above 35 pre 1000 but the death rate decreases to 20 per 1000. the population growth rate increases.
• The end of this stage is marked by population explosion where the natural growth rate is maximum.
• This stage is similar to industrial revolution stage with the control over resources, development of medical sciences, etc.

     Stage III(Late Expanding Phase)

• The Birth rate also declines up to 20 per 1000 but the death rate further declines to 10. Thus the population expansion continues however at a declining rate.
• Scientific revolution & increased per capita income, better control over health hazards, infant mortality, mother mortality, etc.

     Stage IV(Low Stationary Phase)

• Both birth rate & death rate are less then 10. Thus population growth stagnates & consumerism grows in the society.
• Technological developmental, nuclearisation of family, democratic ideals, liberty, individual freedom in the society.

     Stage V(Declining Phase)

• After 1970s in the highly developed economy the firtility has greatly declined and the countries are witnesssing negative population growth rate. eg. Germany, Japan, Russia.

Criticism of Demographic Transition Theory

1. Too deterministic & predictive.
2. Some of the countries have consumerism of stage IV but birth rate of stage II. eg. West Asian countries.
3. Population is not necessarily govern by the economic processes but also by cultural factors.
4. Some of the Countries has economic activities of stage I & population of stage IV. eg. Australia, New-Zealand, Chile & Argentina.
5. The model is not applicable to Africa & Asia and particularly India because India is in demographic trap between stage II & III.
6. The theory has not considered migration as a mechanism of population growth rate.
7. The model does not consider demographic momentum as a factor of population increase.

Demographic Momentum means the no. of people in fertility age. Even though the fertility rate declines,the demographic momentum can further increase population. eg. India has 40% of its population below 14 years & 3/4th of its population in reproductive age.(i.e. the no. of females between 14 to 45 creates demographic momentum)

Population Theories

Malthusian Theory(Robert Malthus)

• the earliest population theory which co-related population explosion with food crisis. It is deterministic & predictive theory of demographic changes.
• Malthus theory is termed as Naturalist Theory because it suggested the nature's mechanism as a control for population and an automated response to the society to control the population.
• Malthus suggested that the population grows at the exponential rate or geometric progression and food grows at asthmatic rate.

          Population    =     1, 2, 4, 8, 16, 32, 64, 128, 256,.......

          Food            =     1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.......

• Population doubles itself in every 25 years
• After 200 years the ratio of food & population reaches a critical point where a world crisis will take place & eventually by natural force, food crisis, or civil war population size will be brought back to the pre-industrial level.
• the critical ratio is 256:9
• [Insert figure]
• Malthus suggested 2 control measures: